priors.science/reviews/caffeine-and-performance

Caffeine and Performance

The current evidence on 12 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty: how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

12claims tracked
119primary papers reviewed
26 Oct 2026latest evidence review
2 Established · 4 Likely · 5 Uncertain · 1 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
Caffeine improves enduranceEnduranceEstablished86%14
Caffeine improves alertnessCognitionEstablished85%11
Caffeine improves sprint performanceStrength PowerLikely82%15
Ergogenic effect is dose-dependentDosingLikely78%13
Caffeine improves strength and powerStrength PowerLikely77%13
Caffeine lowers perceived exertionEnduranceLong-standingLikely72%12thin basis
Low doses improve enduranceDosingUncertain66%13
Caffeine mouth rinse aids performanceDosingUncertain63%13
CYP1A2 genotype moderates the effectIndividualUncertain55%13
Habitual use blunts the effectIndividualUncertain52%13
Pre-exercise caffeine harms sleepAdverseUncertain50%12thin basis
Caffeine offsets sleep-loss deficitsCognitionDoubtful40%12
Track Caffeine and Performance.
These claims are re-checked against new research as it is published. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing: what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it. Confidently false as stated.
A standing changes only when the score moves past a boundary by more than 4 points, the re-scoring noise floor; a score within 4 points of a boundary keeps its previous standing.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.