priors.science/reviews/novel-antibiotics

Novel Antibiotics

The current evidence on 14 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty: how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

16claims tracked
14assessed
209primary papers reviewed
26 Oct 2026latest evidence review
1 Established · 3 Likely · 8 Uncertain · 2 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
AMR causes over one million deaths annuallyAmr BurdenEstablished86%20
Dalbavancin achieves high cure rates in acute bacterial skin infectionsLipoglycopeptidesLong-standingLikely82%19
Stewardship reduces consumptionStewardshipLikely80%23
Phage antibiotic combinationPhageLikely77%20
CAZ-AVI plus aztreonam is effective against MBL-producing organismsCaz AviUncertain62%19thin basis
Stewardship programmes reduce multidrug-resistant organism rates in hospitalsStewardshipUncertain60%21
Cefiderocol has excess mortality risk in Acinetobacter baumannii infectionsCefiderocolUncertain60%17
CRE bacteraemia carries 30 to 45 percent 30-day mortalityAmr BurdenUncertain58%21
CAZ-AVI achieves clinical cure in most serious CRE infectionsCaz AviUncertain58%18
Phage therapy improves clinical outcomes in drug-resistant bacterial infectionsPhageUncertain55%20
Lipoglycopeptides reduce length of stayLipoglycopeptidesUncertain54%20
Dalbavancin osteomyelitis efficacyLipoglycopeptidesUncertain50%20thin basis
Cefiderocol achieves high cure rates in non-Acinetobacter resistant infectionsCefiderocolDoubtful43%19
CAZ-AVI reduces mortality in KPC CRE infections versus older agentsCaz AviDoubtful40%20thin basis
Track Novel Antibiotics.
These claims are re-checked against new research as it is published. Track this topic for the full review, including each claim’s challenge and the papers behind it.
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Standing: what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it. Confidently false as stated.
A standing changes only when the score moves past a boundary by more than 4 points, the re-scoring noise floor; a score within 4 points of a boundary keeps its previous standing.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.