priors.science/reviews/polyphenols-antioxidants

Polyphenols and Antioxidants

The current evidence on 15 claims, ordered from most established to most contested. Each score is the panel’s evidence certainty: how firmly the literature supports the claim as stated.

15claims tracked
221primary papers reviewed
26 Oct 2026latest evidence review
4 Established · 4 Likely · 5 Uncertain · 2 Doubtful  |  four-reviewer panel · PICO Framework
ClaimStandingEvidence certaintyCorpus
Gut microbiota metabolise polyphenolsBioEstablished90%14
Beta-carotene raises smoker lung cancer riskCancEstablished87%14
Cocoa flavanols improve endothelial functionCVEstablished87%16
Antioxidant supplements and mortalitySupEstablished85%14
Polyphenol bioavailability is lowBioLikely82%14
Vitamin E and cardiovascular eventsSupLikely78%16
Flavonoids lower cardiovascular disease mortalityCVLikely72%20
Cocoa flavanols lower blood pressureCVLong-standingLikely72%17
Berry anthocyanins and memoryCogUncertain64%14
Green tea catechins and body weightMetLong-standingUncertain60%13
Polyphenols and insulin sensitivityMetUncertain58%17
Flavonoids and cognitive declineCogUncertain56%14
Resveratrol and glycaemic control type 2 diabetesMetUncertain50%13
Polyphenols and colorectal cancer riskCancDoubtful33%15
Vitamin C and common coldSupDoubtful32%16
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Standing: what the evidence certainty means
Established≥ 85%Strong, consistent evidence. Unlikely to change.
Likely70–84%Well supported, with some gaps or indirect evidence.
Uncertain50–69%Mixed or limited evidence. Genuinely open.
Doubtful30–49%Little support; the weight of evidence leans against it.
Refuted< 30%The evidence contradicts it. Confidently false as stated.
A standing changes only when the score moves past a boundary by more than 4 points, the re-scoring noise floor; a score within 4 points of a boundary keeps its previous standing.
Where the evidence sits in time
Long-standingMost of this evidence is older than the rest of this field.